The next UK Parliament looks like it will be dominated by parties espousing "gender affirmative" policies
The projected Labour landslide is only part of the story
Unless the opinion polls are spectacularly wrong, Labour appear to be on course to win a large majority, possibly even a landslide bigger than the ones they won in 1997 and 2001, with the Tories likely to record one of the worst results they’ve ever had, if not the worst.
For example, the Economist had a poll projecting that Labour would win 465 seats, to the Tories 71 and Lib Dems 52 seats (out of the 632 seats in England, Wales and Scotland). At the time of writing, the “electionmapsuk” nowcast site (you’ll need to scroll) is projecting 453 seats for Labour, 71 for the Lib Dems and 80 for the Tories, plus 17 for the SNP, 4 for Plaid Cymru and 4 for the Greens. The Reform party would get 2 and the DUP would get 61.
Taking the “electionmapuk” figures, I would thus assign 549 seats to parties that are officially signed up to “gender affirmative” policies, i.e. policies to support recognition of the gender identities of trans-identified people and thus to treat on the basis of their professed gender rather than on the basis of their sex. For example, to treat people who were born male as women if they identify as such.
I’ll elaborate on this below, starting with Labour.
Delivering opportunities for all means that everyone should be treated with respect and dignity. Labour will protect LGBT+ and disabled people by making all existing strands of hate crime an aggravated offence.
So-called conversion therapy is abuse – there is no other word for it – so Labour will finally deliver a full trans-inclusive ban on conversion practices, while protecting the freedom for people to explore their sexual orientation and gender identity.
We will also modernise, simplify, and reform the intrusive and outdated gender recognition law to a new process. We will remove indignities for trans people who deserve recognition and acceptance; whilst retaining the need for a diagnosis of gender dysphoria from a specialist doctor, enabling access to the healthcare pathway.
Labour is proud of our Equality Act and the rights and protections it affords women; we will continue to support the implementation of its single-sex exceptions.
The above quotation is from Labour’s manifesto for the general election that will be held in a few days time. Since their 2019 manifesto2, Labour have shifted away from supporting gender self-identification, but are clearly keen to appeal to the trans activists with the pledges to simplify the process of obtaining a gender recognition certificate, make “all existing strands of hate crime an aggrated offence” and to implement a ‘trans inclusive’ ban on conversion therapy.
The pledge to retain the need for a gender dysphoria diagnosis when issuing Gender Recognition Certificates and the the pledge to continue to support single-sex services are clearly aimed at trying to appeal to / reassure the “gender critical” women who fear that allowing self-id means effectively the ending of single-sex spaces and services, due to anyone being able to identify as a women and thus use those spaces.
However, many members of the Labour party, including many of the MPs it had in the 2019-2024 parliament, and many of the unions (e.g. the TUC) that support Labour are supportive of gender affirmative policies. The main reason it seems to me that the leadership shifted position here is because of the increasingly vocal and successful ‘gender critical’ movement in the UK and being seen to respond to that prior to the election. Thus, it seems to me that we are about to elect a governing party3 that is officially signed up to much of the “gender affirmative” agenda, with pressure from a lot of activists, supportive NGOs and unions to potentially go further than what is pledged in the manifesto.
But that’s not all, consider the Lib Dems manifesto, this includes the following pledges4:
Ban all forms of conversion therapies and practices (page 94)
“Reform the gender recognition process to remove the requirement for medical reports, recognise non-binary identities in law, and remove the spousal veto”. (page 96)
Then we have the manifesto of the Green Party of England and Wales pushing a very similar set of policies on gender:
The Green Party supports self-ID, so that trans and non-binary people could be legally recognised in their chosen gender through self-declaration.
We also support ending the spousal veto so that married trans people can acquire their gender recognition certification without having to obtain permission from their spouse, and to change the law so an X gender marker can be added to passports for non-binary and intersex people who wish to use it.
Meanwhile the SNP had already legislated for gender self-id in Scotland, only for Westminster the exercise a veto, and proposed a ban on conversion therapy as well, and their manifesto states:
With independence we would have the full powers to improve equality in law and society, and the ability to champion LGBTI equality internationally.
Whilst the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, have a manifesto stating:
We reaffirm our commitment to ensure that LGBTQ+ voices and experiences are heard and will continue to actively promote LGBTQ+ rights. We will promote LGBTQ+ inclusion throughout society, including all workplaces and participation in sport, as part of a broader effort towards healthier lifestyle.
Plaid Cymru would end so-called conversion therapy practices related to sexuality and gender identity.
We are concerned by the rise of hate crimes in recent years perpetrated against the LGBTQ+ community, in particular transphobia, and need to see this tackled by our Police forces.
Similarly, as part of their community outreach efforts, we would expect the Police to be promoting positive, affirming and trust building links with all minority sections of societies e.g. attending local Pride events and community diversity events.
We will continue to fight for equality for trans people. Having secured recurrent funding for a Wales Gender Identity Clinic so that people can receive support here in Wales, rather than traveling to London, we will work to improve the provision and ensure timely access to its services and support.
Plaid Cymru will seek the powers to present the Senedd with a proposal for simplified, demedicalised gender self-identification system.
(page 70)
So it seems that the next Parliament will give us a governing party with a large majority that is officially committed to gender affirming policies and numerous opposition MPs from parties pledged to go even further than the governing party on this front.
The official opposition might still be the Tories5, but even in combination with the DUP and Reform (should they get any seats) they’d could do no more than huff and puff to oppose any of the policies concerned, and if the government is under pressure from the trans activists in its own party as well as the nationalists, Greens, Lib Dems, trade unions and many of Britains NGOs, I’d expect them to cave to that pressure rather than any pressure the Tories might bring.
It seems to me that the gender critical movement will have a much more difficult battle in these circumstances than it had in the previous parliament.
Sinn Fein may win seats in Northern Ireland but won’t take them up, which I guess is why we don’t see their inclusion on the ‘electionmapsuk’ site.
That manifesto stated: "Labour is committed to reforming the Gender Recognition Act 2004 to introduce self-declaration for transgender people,“, page 68 under the LGBTQ+ equality section.
As for the previous governing party, the 2019 Tory manifesto had no such commitments aside from “We will vigorously combat harassment and violence against all religious groups, and against LGBT people.“ - a policy I agree with,.
The “spousal veto” is not really a veto as explained here.
It’s possible the Lib Dems might become the official opposition if some poll projections are to be believed.